Wheels of reform stuck, critics say

Skepticism persists despite Myanmar's release of Suu Kyi

By Rafael D. Frankel
Special to the Tribune
Published September 28, 2003

BANGKOK -- Despite the return of democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi to her home Friday for the first time in nearly four months, there has been no concrete movement toward democracy in Myanmar, diplomats in Yangon and Bangkok said Saturday.

It was far more likely that the military junta that rules Myanmar allowed Suu Kyi to return home to convalesce from gynecological surgery as a means of diverting attention from the situation there before an Oct. 7-8 summit of regional leaders in Bali, Indonesia, they said.

Diplomats also characterized the move as a calculated measure by the military to portray itself as sympathetic to Suu Kyi without appearing to bend to foreign will.

"It's all about managing the level of international pressure," said a Western diplomat in Yangon. "It's not an indication that they actually want to reform."

As long as the Nobel peace laureate and the leaders of her National League for Democracy remain under house arrest, there is very little chance that the wheels of democracy can move in Myanmar in the near future, the diplomat said.

The military arrested Suu Kyi and dozens of her supporters May 30 after an attack by a pro-military militia that killed scores of democracy activists traveling in her convoy.

In the following days, the junta shut down the opposition group and placed its leadership under house arrest. Suu Kyi was held incommunicado at an undisclosed site until she was moved Sept. 20 for her operation at a hospital in the capital, Yangon.

Amnesty International estimates there are 1,300 political prisoners in Myanmar, and diplomats say their fate is also important to the democratic process.

The military has been in power since 1988, when the country was known as Burma.

International pressure

Since launching the most recent crackdown on the democratic movement, the junta has received diplomats who demanded Suu Kyi's release.

The regime also has endured economic sanctions from the United States and other countries; the cessation of aid from its largest financial donor, Japan; and an unprecedented diplomatic rebuke from its Southeast Asian neighbors.

Yet despite near worldwide condemnation, diplomats and political analysts say there are few signs of the military's relenting in its crackdown.

"When they release her from being held incommunicado to house arrest are we supposed to say, `Great'?" a Western diplomat in Bangkok said. "This is not a time to congratulate the Burmese government."

Such skepticism persists among Western diplomats in the region despite Suu Kyi's return home and a "road map to democracy" announced in August by Myanmar Prime Minister Khin Nyunt.

The government's record of broken promises makes it hard to believe that the proposal is sincere, said another diplomat in Yangon.

Furthermore, the junta has yet to say it will accept the NLD as a partner in talks on reforms.

Some Asian governments see the situation differently.

Thailand, which has been criticized for not taking a harder stand against the junta, is optimistic about the prospects for the road map, Thai Foreign Ministry Spokesman Sihasak Phuangketkeow said.

Many Western diplomats are lamenting the lack of public pressure from the one nation they believe has strong influence with the junta: China.

In recent years, China has come to economically dominate northern Myanmar, and the Chinese government has extended hundreds of millions of dollars in loans to the military since it seized power.

Unlike the rest of Myanmar's neighbors, the Chinese have said they consider Suu Kyi's detention and the broader crackdown on democracy to be internal issues best handled without foreign influence.

A spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Yangon said the American officials are talking with many countries to bring as much pressure to bear on the junta as possible.

"The more multilateral the pressure, the more effective it is," the spokesman said.

Sanctions costing jobs

The United States has slapped Myanmar with economic sanctions that are likely to have severe effects on the Myanmar economy, a Western diplomat said in Bangkok.

Some reports have placed the number of jobs lost as a result of the sanctions at 100,000 to 300,000.

"There are probably some generals who own factories that aren't making money now that were before, and that might have an impact," the diplomat said.

But if the economic sanctions ultimately fail to persuade the military regime to change, there may be few alternatives left for the United States to pursue, the diplomat added.

©2003 The Chicago Tribune