Searching for the truth in Myanmar

Democracy on hold in nation on edge

By Rafael D. Frankel
Special to the Tribune
Published March 2, 2003

YANGON, Myanmar -- In a totalitarian nation where the grapevine has replaced the media as the trusted source of information, two rumors this month--one false, one true--have stirred this nation's simmering cauldron of discontent.

The economy had been on a downward spiral long before the first rumor struck--that the commercial banks were about to go bankrupt. Although false, it created a run on banks that prompted some to restrict withdrawals.

So when the second rumor--that Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi was headed to jail again--turned out to be true, passions were already high. Soon nearly 2,000 protesters gathered outside a Yangon courthouse, an uncommon occurrence in this nation where a military junta has ruled since 1988.

On Feb. 21, a court found Suu Kyi, the leader of the National League for Democracy, guilty of wrongful restraint in a civil suit and gave her the choice of paying a 50-cent fine or spending a week in jail.

"The Lady," as she is affectionately known here, chose jail.

The suit stemmed from an altercation last year, two days after Suu Kyi was released from house arrest. Her cousin, Soe Aung, punched her after she refused to allow him inside her compound.

Suu Kyi filed a lawsuit against her cousin for assault, and he filed a countersuit. Soe Aung also was found guilty and ordered to pay a $1 fine or spend a month in jail. The outcome of his sentence was unclear.

The military, faced with a volatile crowd and the uncomfortable prospect of sending the hero of millions of Myanmar people to prison just eight months after her release from a second house arrest, ordered Suu Kyi's sentence suspended.

Though Suu Kyi won a minor victory, the path toward democracy has made no headway since her release.

"It's obvious the process has stalled," said a Western ambassador, who like most diplomats, political activists and residents spoke only on condition of anonymity.

Relations between the military and Suu Kyi's league are extremely tense. Hope for a political reconciliation, which followed Suu Kyi's release May 6, has given way to despair and frustration within the league and among its supporters.

Suu Kyi's conviction follows the arrest of seven National League members and five other democracy activists two weeks ago.

"The general sense is that the [democratic process] is going nowhere, and we are extraordinarily disappointed with that," a Western diplomat said.

Washington is a staunch critic of the Myanmar junta and a strong supporter of Suu Kyi, and the U.S. has imposed an investment ban, travel restrictions for Myanmar officials and an arms embargo, among other sanctions, on the country.

An olive branch to U.S.

Just this month, Myanmar's junta extended a surprise invitation to the U.S. to enter a dialogue on the country's political future. But Western diplomats here played that off as a public-relations move to ward off new sanctions rather than a serious offer.

The appeal followed hints by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Lorne Craner that Washington would impose new sanctions on the former Burma due to a lack of progress in political dialogue with Suu Kyi and other democracy advocates.

The junta, which calls itself the State Peace and Development Council, is supposed to be engaged in UN-brokered talks on national reconciliation with Suu Kyi. The talks began in October 2000.

Even so, rather than negotiate, the military regime is conducting a smear campaign against the National League and Suu Kyi in particular, said league spokesman U Luwin.

He noted a cartoon published recently in a Yangon newspaper that depicted Suu Kyi and senior league members tarnishing the image of Myanmar.

According to local and foreign experts on Myanmar's laws, the trial and eventual finding against Suu Kyi appeared fraught with legal abnormalities.

National League officials "believe there is an orchestrated political campaign to embarrass her, to diminish her and make her look ordinary," a Western diplomat said. "The irregularities with the way this case was handled support that."

In its defense, the junta said that under Myanmar law "all citizens are treated equally" and that the charge of playing politics in the civil suit "is completely untrue."

But the Suu Kyi conviction was just the latest shock to Myanmar. Current events here have the populace on edge and even prompted the UN to issue a warning last week to its employees here to exercise caution.

The banking crisis, coupled with rampant inflation, is threatening to grind the economy to a halt. Since the beginning of 2002, prices for rice, cooking oil and gasoline have risen more than 100 percent.

Though another Western diplomat said the reasons behind the price increases were murky, the consequences were potentially devastating.

"The poorest could face an increasingly difficult situation here," he said. "It's hard to imagine starvation, but malnutrition, which is already a problem, could increase."

Talk of discontent

Interviews with taxi drivers, hotel clerks, educators and health-care workers here all point to high discontent with the state of affairs in what was previously one of Asia's wealthiest countries. A taxi driver, his voice trembling and rising as he spoke, said he thinks there "will soon be an explosion."

Due to the pervasive presence of military intelligence personnel, such "interviews" are conducted in hushed tones at the back tables of tea houses or in private vehicles--when they take place at all.

Fearing imprisonment or disappearance, most Myanmar citizens simply shake their head and walk away when asked about any matters concerning the military government.

Some 1,300 political prisoners remain jailed and executions and forced labor continue to be reported in ethnic minority areas, according to Amnesty International.

Those people who do talk paint a picture of a society deeply frustrated with its plummeting standard of living and an inept government that people blame for their myriad ills.

©2003 The Chicago Tribune