Sharon's Gamble

Sharon’s Gamble

BY RAFAEL D. FRANKEL

Analysis

JERUSALEM—Saying Monday evening that “the Likud in its present configuration cannot lead the nation to its goals," Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon formally quit the party he helped found 32 years ago. At the same time, a huge majority in the Kinesset passed motions to dissolve Israel’s parliament, capping a day that shook the foundations of Israel’s political world like none other in recent memory.

Though Sharon’s decision was met by much fanfare here, the old general is taking substantial political risks in forming his new, centrist party, the main goal of which is “to lay the foundation for a peaceful arrangement in which we will determine the final borders of the state, while insisting that terror organizations are dismantled.”

Despite polls here which suggest his “National Responsibility” party would gain the most votes in general elections expected in March, the fracturing of the Israeli political system—long dominated by the Likud and Labor—leaves a path full of potential pitfalls in Sharon’s bid for a third term as premier.

In the general elections, the prime minister will have to contend with the fiery trade unionist Amir Peretz, who recently wrestled control of the left-leaning Labor from Vice Prime Minister Shimon Peres, as well as one of a slew of candidates from the Likud, among them former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Moreover, history has not been kind to hastily formed parties here, even when they were headed by proven leaders.

That is one of the reasons Sharon is moving to dissolve the Kinesset as soon as possible. The prime minister believes that with the Gaza withdrawal behind him, the momentum is now firmly in his corner and he would like to ride that wave of support to an unprecedented election victory.

With political enemies now flanking both his sides, the old hawk is betting that his leadership credentials and image as conservative pragmatist can appeal to the vast spectrum of voters that make up the Israeli political center—people who are willing to trade land for peace but do not necessarily trust their Palestinian counterparts.

A leader who on the one hand is tough on terrorism, but on the other is willing to make “painful concessions” (code for land concessions) will likely appeal to many Israelis, and Sharon is banking on a strong plurality of voters viewing him in such a light.

Even with strong support, it is almost a given that whichever party emerges with the most Kinneset mandates will fall well short of a majority and thus need to form a coalition.

Were National Responsibility to gain the most votes, it is likely Sharon would look toward Labor and the secularist party Shinui to form a governing coalition that would keep him in power. Whether those two parties will oblige remains to be seen, but offers of ministerial posts have often tempted otherwise reluctant Israeli leaders to join coalitions.

A coalition between National Responsibility and the Likud is not seen as likely since Sharon left the party due to the refusal of so many Likud members to follow his political path.

Depending on the results, and the duration of the next government, the coming election may be the last time Sharon stands for political office. Though he would like to cement his legacy with a peace deal, the man once known as “the bulldozer” has made clear that any final-status negotiations are predicated upon a disarming of Palestinian militant groups.

Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has said he is willing to make such a move, but only after Palestinian elections in January, where he is trying to fend off a stiff challenge from Hamas.

“I hope that, once the dust settles down in Israel,” Palestinian Chief Negotiator Saeb Erekat said Monday, “that we will have a partner that is willing to re-engage in the end game, the end of conflict, in order to achieve a peace treaty between Israelis and Palestinians, which, I believe, is doable.”

Until then, the peace process is on hold as the two sides focus on internal political dramas.

©2005 Rafael D. Frankel