By Rafael D. Frankel
JERUSALEM—Vice Prime Minister Shimon Peres, the stalwart of Israel’s Labor Party and the longest serving member of the Knesset will quit Labor and party politics to join his long-time friend and political rival Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in a potential new government, a top Sharon advisor told reporters Tuesday.
Though the advisor, Lior Horev, back-tracked, saying he was not in a position to speak for Peres, the cat was already out of the bag.
On Monday, in Barcelona, Peres told reporters: “My goal is to make peace and it doesn't matter with which party.” Many in Israel also feel his motivation stems from a feeling of betrayal at the hands of newly elected Labor Chairman Amir Peretz, whom Peres brought back into the party only to be defeated by him in primary elections.
The vice prime minister is currently in Spain attending a soccer match between a joint Israeli-Palestinian team and FC Barcelona sponsored by his Peres Center for Peace and is expected to make a formal announcement of his intentions when he returns to Israel Wednesday night.
Under a deal with Sharon, Peres would be a senior minister in charge of negotiations with the Palestinians and development of the Negev and Galilee regions of Israel in a new Sharon government. He would not, however, run as a member of Kadima for the Knesset, ending his record streak of serving in Israel’s parliament since 1959.
The seeds for Peres’s departure seem to have been laid on Nov. 20 at the final cabinet meeting of the government before it fell. “This is the beginning of the joint work between us,” Sharon told Peres at the time. “I won't let you turn away from completing the missions you are destined for. I'll call on your assistance in the future.”
The defection of Peres from Labor represents a coupe-de-gras for the prime minister who has wielded his influence and soaring poll numbers to pull stars from both the left and right of Israeli politics to join him in his new Kadima party. “Kadima” means “forward” in Hebrew.
Abraham Diskin, a professor of political science at The Hebrew University in Jerusalem, said Sharon’s political power has grown both from weak rivals and his capturing of the vast Israeli political center which has given up on the idea of real peace but has also accepted the inevitability of a Palestinian state.
“The alternative [candidates to Sharon] are not really very trustful or admired by most of the people, so compared to others, his personality shines,” Diskin said.
“People on the left gave up the idea of a rosy peace and people on the right gave up the idea of Greater Israel and [both] moved to the center. No one represents that better than Sharon himself, and now no one looks more reliable than Sharon,” he said.
Though the most high-profile defection to Kadima from Labor, Peres is not the first. Popular Knesset member Haim Ramon left Labor last week and Dalia Itzik, a close Peres ally, announced her decision Monday. Sharon has also taken with him 13 Knesset members from his old Likud party, including ministers Ehud Olmert and Tzipi Livni.
Sharon also received a boost Tuesday when Uriel Reichman, a founder of the secularist Shinui party and a well-known academic in Israel, bolted his party to join Kadima.
Assuming the latest polling numbers are correct, Sharon’s Kadima party will gain the most mandates in the March 28 elections, followed by Labor in second and the depleted Likud in a distant third. The prime minister will then decide whether to look left or right to form a new governing coalition.
Though it is believed his preference is to join with Labor again, Diskin said, one thing will be clear: “Sharon will hold all the cards in his hand and he will be the one to make the decisions.”
©2005 Rafael D. Frankel & The New York Daily News
Thursday, December 01, 2005
Tuesday, November 22, 2005
Sharon's Gamble
Sharon’s Gamble
BY RAFAEL D. FRANKEL
Analysis
JERUSALEM—Saying Monday evening that “the Likud in its present configuration cannot lead the nation to its goals," Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon formally quit the party he helped found 32 years ago. At the same time, a huge majority in the Kinesset passed motions to dissolve Israel’s parliament, capping a day that shook the foundations of Israel’s political world like none other in recent memory.
Though Sharon’s decision was met by much fanfare here, the old general is taking substantial political risks in forming his new, centrist party, the main goal of which is “to lay the foundation for a peaceful arrangement in which we will determine the final borders of the state, while insisting that terror organizations are dismantled.”
Despite polls here which suggest his “National Responsibility” party would gain the most votes in general elections expected in March, the fracturing of the Israeli political system—long dominated by the Likud and Labor—leaves a path full of potential pitfalls in Sharon’s bid for a third term as premier.
In the general elections, the prime minister will have to contend with the fiery trade unionist Amir Peretz, who recently wrestled control of the left-leaning Labor from Vice Prime Minister Shimon Peres, as well as one of a slew of candidates from the Likud, among them former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Moreover, history has not been kind to hastily formed parties here, even when they were headed by proven leaders.
That is one of the reasons Sharon is moving to dissolve the Kinesset as soon as possible. The prime minister believes that with the Gaza withdrawal behind him, the momentum is now firmly in his corner and he would like to ride that wave of support to an unprecedented election victory.
With political enemies now flanking both his sides, the old hawk is betting that his leadership credentials and image as conservative pragmatist can appeal to the vast spectrum of voters that make up the Israeli political center—people who are willing to trade land for peace but do not necessarily trust their Palestinian counterparts.
A leader who on the one hand is tough on terrorism, but on the other is willing to make “painful concessions” (code for land concessions) will likely appeal to many Israelis, and Sharon is banking on a strong plurality of voters viewing him in such a light.
Even with strong support, it is almost a given that whichever party emerges with the most Kinneset mandates will fall well short of a majority and thus need to form a coalition.
Were National Responsibility to gain the most votes, it is likely Sharon would look toward Labor and the secularist party Shinui to form a governing coalition that would keep him in power. Whether those two parties will oblige remains to be seen, but offers of ministerial posts have often tempted otherwise reluctant Israeli leaders to join coalitions.
A coalition between National Responsibility and the Likud is not seen as likely since Sharon left the party due to the refusal of so many Likud members to follow his political path.
Depending on the results, and the duration of the next government, the coming election may be the last time Sharon stands for political office. Though he would like to cement his legacy with a peace deal, the man once known as “the bulldozer” has made clear that any final-status negotiations are predicated upon a disarming of Palestinian militant groups.
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has said he is willing to make such a move, but only after Palestinian elections in January, where he is trying to fend off a stiff challenge from Hamas.
“I hope that, once the dust settles down in Israel,” Palestinian Chief Negotiator Saeb Erekat said Monday, “that we will have a partner that is willing to re-engage in the end game, the end of conflict, in order to achieve a peace treaty between Israelis and Palestinians, which, I believe, is doable.”
Until then, the peace process is on hold as the two sides focus on internal political dramas.
©2005 Rafael D. Frankel
BY RAFAEL D. FRANKEL
Analysis
JERUSALEM—Saying Monday evening that “the Likud in its present configuration cannot lead the nation to its goals," Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon formally quit the party he helped found 32 years ago. At the same time, a huge majority in the Kinesset passed motions to dissolve Israel’s parliament, capping a day that shook the foundations of Israel’s political world like none other in recent memory.
Though Sharon’s decision was met by much fanfare here, the old general is taking substantial political risks in forming his new, centrist party, the main goal of which is “to lay the foundation for a peaceful arrangement in which we will determine the final borders of the state, while insisting that terror organizations are dismantled.”
Despite polls here which suggest his “National Responsibility” party would gain the most votes in general elections expected in March, the fracturing of the Israeli political system—long dominated by the Likud and Labor—leaves a path full of potential pitfalls in Sharon’s bid for a third term as premier.
In the general elections, the prime minister will have to contend with the fiery trade unionist Amir Peretz, who recently wrestled control of the left-leaning Labor from Vice Prime Minister Shimon Peres, as well as one of a slew of candidates from the Likud, among them former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu. Moreover, history has not been kind to hastily formed parties here, even when they were headed by proven leaders.
That is one of the reasons Sharon is moving to dissolve the Kinesset as soon as possible. The prime minister believes that with the Gaza withdrawal behind him, the momentum is now firmly in his corner and he would like to ride that wave of support to an unprecedented election victory.
With political enemies now flanking both his sides, the old hawk is betting that his leadership credentials and image as conservative pragmatist can appeal to the vast spectrum of voters that make up the Israeli political center—people who are willing to trade land for peace but do not necessarily trust their Palestinian counterparts.
A leader who on the one hand is tough on terrorism, but on the other is willing to make “painful concessions” (code for land concessions) will likely appeal to many Israelis, and Sharon is banking on a strong plurality of voters viewing him in such a light.
Even with strong support, it is almost a given that whichever party emerges with the most Kinneset mandates will fall well short of a majority and thus need to form a coalition.
Were National Responsibility to gain the most votes, it is likely Sharon would look toward Labor and the secularist party Shinui to form a governing coalition that would keep him in power. Whether those two parties will oblige remains to be seen, but offers of ministerial posts have often tempted otherwise reluctant Israeli leaders to join coalitions.
A coalition between National Responsibility and the Likud is not seen as likely since Sharon left the party due to the refusal of so many Likud members to follow his political path.
Depending on the results, and the duration of the next government, the coming election may be the last time Sharon stands for political office. Though he would like to cement his legacy with a peace deal, the man once known as “the bulldozer” has made clear that any final-status negotiations are predicated upon a disarming of Palestinian militant groups.
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has said he is willing to make such a move, but only after Palestinian elections in January, where he is trying to fend off a stiff challenge from Hamas.
“I hope that, once the dust settles down in Israel,” Palestinian Chief Negotiator Saeb Erekat said Monday, “that we will have a partner that is willing to re-engage in the end game, the end of conflict, in order to achieve a peace treaty between Israelis and Palestinians, which, I believe, is doable.”
Until then, the peace process is on hold as the two sides focus on internal political dramas.
©2005 Rafael D. Frankel